Smarter People Predict the Future Better, Study Finds

A recent study from the University of Bath’s School of Management has found that individuals with a higher IQ are much better at predicting future events especially those related to their health and life expectancy. This greater accuracy leads to smarter decision-making and can result in better life outcomes, including improved health, financial stability, and overall well-being.

Published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, the research highlights a strong link between intelligence and the ability to make realistic, informed judgments about the future.

Understanding the Study

The study used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), which includes a large and nationally representative sample of people over the age of 50 in England. Participants were asked to estimate their chances of living to certain ages. These personal estimates were then compared with official life expectancy data from the UK Office for National Statistics.

To ensure the results were accurate, researchers accounted for important factors like lifestyle choices, current health, and family history of longevity.

Smarter People Make More Accurate Forecasts

One of the most striking findings was how much more accurate high-IQ individuals were in predicting their life expectancy. People in the top 2.5% of IQ scores made significantly fewer forecasting errors than those in the lowest 2.5%. The forecasting errors made by lower-IQ individuals were more than twice as large.
This wasn’t just about being optimistic or pessimistic it was about consistently making inaccurate assessments, regardless of whether they were too high or too low.

Why Forecasting Matters

Professor Chris Dawson, who led the study, explains that making sound decisions relies heavily on our ability to correctly judge the likelihood of both positive and negative events occurring in our lives.
Whether you’re deciding to invest money, start a business, undergo a medical procedure, or simply choose what to eat or who to trust your ability to judge risk and likelihood plays a key role. Those who estimate probabilities more accurately are more likely to make decisions that protect and improve their future.

The Role of Genetics and Cognitive Skills

The research didn’t stop at IQ test results. Professor Dawson and his team also looked at genetic markers linked to intelligence and education. These genetic traits were found to be related to better forecasting accuracy, suggesting that cognitive ability may directly influence how well a person can assess uncertainty and risk.

Implications for Public Health and Financial Planning

This research carries important lessons for public health, financial education, and even national economic planning.
Since people with lower cognitive ability tend to make more forecasting errors, they may be more vulnerable to poor health decisions, bad investments, and inadequate retirement planning. To help address this, Professor Dawson suggests that health and financial information should be presented with clear, explicit probability estimates, rather than expecting individuals to calculate risk on their own.
Doing so could help people make more informed and accurate decisions, regardless of their cognitive ability.

Why It Matters

Poor forecasting doesn’t just affect individuals it can have ripple effects across society. When people make poor financial decisions or fail to prepare for later-life health issues, it can reduce their quality of life and even affect national economic growth.
Professor Dawson emphasises that people’s expectations about the future strongly influence key financial choices such as how much they save, when they choose to retire, or whether they decide to invest. If these expectations are inaccurate, it can result in poor financial decisions and lower overall economic well-being.

Conclusion

This research shows that intelligence plays a key role in how accurately we predict future events and that these predictions influence nearly every aspect of our lives. By understanding this connection, and by offering clearer information to help those at risk of forecasting errors, we can improve individual decisions and support better health, financial, and social outcomes for everyone.

Source: Inputs from various media Sources

I’m a pharmacist with a strong background in health sciences. I hold a BSc from Delhi University and a pharmacy degree from PDM University. I write articles and daily health news while interviewing doctors to bring you the latest insights. In my free time, you’ll find me at the gym or lost in a sci-fi novel.